Mogadishu between Plague and Cholera
Marc Engelhardt, Deutsche Welle, 2 January 2007
For nearly 16 years Somalis have had no choice who governs theircountry. The invasion by Ethiopian troops has done nothing to change
this. The responsibility lies above all with the failure of European
diplomacy, says Marc Engelhardt
People have allegedly been throwing flowers again; flanked by
Ethiopian troops, the transitional Somali government has been
marching into Islamist-controlled villages since Christmas Eve 2006.
Half a year earlier, when the Union of Islamic Courts drove the
warlords who had ruled Somalia for years out of Mogadishu and
proceeded to conquer large areas of the country, there were similar
scenes.
Is this propaganda on the part of the victors, or reality? Probably
the latter, as after 16 years of anarchic conditions in the Horn of
Africa, ordinary Somalis have long been hoping for one thing: a
government which will bring normality; any kind of normality will do.
Islamist law and order
On this ticket the Islamists managed to win the hearts of Mogadishu's
citizens in June; the Islamic Courts promised immediate calm and
order, for the first time since the dictator Siad Barré was thrown
from power in 1991 – a city without roadblocks and free of the
drugged-up, khat-smoking militias who became increasingly trigger-
happy throughout the day.
The leaders of the clans and sub-clans, the structure governing
Somali society, gave the Islamists the mandate to bring the disorder
in Somalia's capital to an end at last.
When the extremists within the courts increasingly began to get the
upper hand, the heart-felt decision turned into something more
practical; many Somalis were prepared to grit their teeth and pay a
price for the newly-won freedom of movement in their country, whether
a ban on television, on khat, or the threat of public execution for
anyone who didn't turn to Mecca and pray five times a day; delighted
they were not.
On the streets of Mogadishu anger began to grow, and even Somali
newspapers reported critically on the hard line taken by the Courts'
new tough man, the wanted terrorist Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys. It
seemed that for the first time since the days of Barré a popular
uprising was possible, in favour of the moderate elements within the
Islamists and the powerless transitional government in self-imposed
exile in Baidoa.
No choice for Somalis
What happened instead was a solution typical for Somalia. A US-backed
military attack by Ethiopia, banishing of the Islamists and ushering
in a new government, which was internationally recognized but did not
have to be put to the vote. Many of those riding into Mogadishu on
the back of the Ethiopian tanks were responsible as warlords for the
chaos which ensured the Islamists' success.
Whether they will return to power is still uncertain, as other
autocrats within the clans are already competing to become the new
warlords of Mogadishu. The Somalis have been landed with another new
government. They didn't have any choice in the matter, and if they
had, it would probably have been between plague and cholera.
The responsibility lies above all with the failure of European
diplomacy. Since the Islamists came to power, hesitantly, and mainly
under pressure from the former colonial power Italy, the EU has
formed the "Contact group for Somalia" together with the US and
others, aiming to find a diplomatic solution – the ideal forum for
the strengthening of moderate elements.
Further escalation likely
However the only peace talks to have taken place, in Khartoum the
capital of Sudan, were held under the umbrella of the Arab League,
and were unsuccessful. Currently the US is pressing ever more openly,
and unimpeded, for a military solution.
While US troops in the east of Ethiopia have been preparing for war,
Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer has
provoked confrontation, finally condemning the entire Union of
Islamic Courts as a terrorist cell controlled by al-Qaeda.
The US has pushed through a resolution at the UN Security Council,
against the wishes of other members, but without significant
resistance, which will simply lead to further escalation of the
situation.
Europe excluded from Somalian affairs
From Europe there has been no word on the subject. While the EU
Development Commissioner, Louis Michel, who had already squandered an
opportunity at the beginning of the year in the Congo, flew to Baidoa
and Mogadishu on the Wednesday before Christmas "to mediate", the war
machine was already in top gear, unbeknown to the Europeans.
Michel's visit to Somalia became an embarrassing sign of how excluded
from Somalian affairs the EU really was, right to the end.
However the Ethiopian blitzkrieg in Somalia also has a good side. It
has demonstrated that a professional, well-equipped army can
incapacitate militia troops armed with Kalashnikovs and clapped-out
armoured cars in days. The fact that the attack breaks international
law is neither here nor there. The same operation could free millions
in West-Sudan's Darfur, who have had to endure four years of misery,
including brutal attacks, mass-rapes, pillaging and the like, even in
allegedly secure refuge camps.
These are all crimes on a scale on which even the worst Somali
Islamist could never be guilty. But Darfur must continue to suffer;
here too Europe remains silent.